Determining the exact percentage of Christians compared to non-Christians in the world is challenging for several reasons:
- There is no definitive global census on religious affiliation. Population data is estimates based on surveys, self-reporting, and demographic analysis.
- Definitions of “Christian” vary widely. Some organizations only count baptized, practicing members of churches. Others use a broader definition of anyone identifying as Christian.
- Religious affiliation is fluid and changes over time. Conversion, switching religions, secularization, and population growth ensure the percentages are moving targets.
- Persecution and legal restrictions in some countries lead believers to hide their faith, skewing data.
- Cultural Christianity clouds the data. Many identify as Christians due to family background or cultural heritage rather than personal beliefs.
However, based on available data, reasonable estimates can be made:
- According to the Center for the Study of Global Christianity, in 2020 Christians numbered 2.382 billion, representing 31% of the global population of 7.754 billion.
- Pew Research Center’s 2020 study found 31% identified as Christian. They project Christians declining slightly to 29.8% by 2050 and 28% by 2060.
- The World Christian Encyclopedia estimates 33% identified as Christian in 2020. They project a slight increase to 35% by 2050.
So most estimates place Christians between 31-35% of the global population as of 2020. The exact percentage varies slightly based on source and definition of Christian.
The flip side, the percentage of non-Christians worldwide, can be estimated by subtracting Christians from total global population:
- 69% non-Christian (100% – 31% Christian) in 2020 according to the Center for the Study of Global Christianity.
- 69-67% non-Christian in 2020 according to Pew Research Center’s data and projections.
- 65% non-Christian (100% – 35% Christian) according to World Christian Encyclopedia data.
So non-Christians appear to make up 65-69% of world population based on current data.
Regional Differences
There are significant regional variations in Christian and non-Christian representation:
- Europe: Around 65-75% Christian depending on source (75-90% in Eastern Europe, 45-55% Western Europe). Secularization declining Christianity.
- North America: Around 70-75% Christian.
- Latin America: Around 90% Christian. Catholicism dominates.
- Sub-Saharan Africa: 75-85% Christian. Rapid growth expanding Christianity.
- Middle East-North Africa: 5-10% Christian. Islam is dominant, Christianity declining.
- Asia-Pacific: 7-10% Christian except Philippines (85%) and South Korea (29%).
So Christianity has large percentages in historically Christian regions (Europe, the Americas) but small percentages in places like the Middle East and Asia-Pacific.
Factors Influencing the Data
Several cultural and demographic factors influence Christian representation worldwide:
- Fertility rates: Christians have lower fertility rates (2.6 children per woman) compared to non-Christians (2.9 children per woman). This leads to non-Christians growing faster.
- Life expectancy: Christian majority countries tend to have higher life expectancy (71 years) than non-Christian majority countries (65 years). More Christians living longer.
- Age demographics: Christians have higher median age. Only 27% of Christians are under age 15 versus 34% of non-Christians. More rapid youth population growth among non-Christians.
- Immigration trends: Influx of non-Christians into secularized Christian-majority countries in the West, diluting Christian percentage over time.
- Christian evangelism: Vibrant Christian witness and church planting reaching non-Christians in Global South expanding Christian ranks there.
- Persecution: Oppression and violence against Christians in Middle East, Asia and Africa restricting growth or reducing Christian population share.
These and many other cultural dynamics shape the Christian versus non-Christian percentages worldwide. The data is complex and ever-changing.
Projections for the Future
What might the future hold for Christian and non-Christian demographics globally? Here are a few projections:
- Pew Research (2015): From 2010 to 2050, Christians to decline moderately as share of world population from 31% to 30%.
- Pew Research (2017): Christians to decline from 32% of world population in 2015 to 29.8% by 2050. Fertility rates and religious switching driving change.
- Center for Study of Global Christianity (2020): Christian percentage to remain steady around 33% through 2050. Conversions balancing defections.
- World Christian Encyclopedia (2020): Christian share of global population to rise somewhat from 33% to 35% by 2050 due to evangelism and higher fertility rates.
Most projections see relative stability or slight declines in Christian representation by 2050. But the projections are estimates given dramatically different demographic futures (especially fertility rates) could emerge.
What the Bible Says
What does the Bible say about the state of faith in the world? Several key passages provide perspective:
- “Do not be afraid, little flock, for your Father has been pleased to give you the kingdom.” (Luke 12:32) – Followers of Christ will always be a “little flock” in the world.
- “Wide is the gate and broad is the road that leads to destruction, and many enter through it. But small is the gate and narrow the road that leads to life, and only a few find it.” (Matthew 7:13-14) – The way of Christ has always been less traveled.
- “At that time many will turn away from the faith and will betray and hate each other, and many false prophets will appear and deceive many people.” (Matthew 24:10-11) – Some level of defection from faith expected.
- “And this gospel of the kingdom will be preached in the whole world as a testimony to all nations, and then the end will come.” (Matthew 24:14) – The faith will reach the world, but not necessarily convert all.
Scripture records Jesus warning that Christians would be a minority presence amid competing worldviews. But he encouraged the faithful remnant to embrace their role as his witnesses to transform lives and culture.
Ministering in a Non-Christian World
What should be the Christian response to living in a predominantly non-Christian world?
- Have compassion – Remember that all people are made in God’s image, yet lost without Christ. “God so loved the world…” (John 3:16)
- Build bridges – Find common ground to serve people of all faith backgrounds. “I have become all things to all people so that by all possible means I might save some.” (1 Corinthians 9:22)
- Overcome fear – Take courage in the promises of God’s kingdom despite seeming marginalization. “Do not be afraid…” (Joshua 1:9)
- Remain humble – Avoid an “us vs. them” mentality. “Do nothing out of selfish ambition or vain conceit.” (Philippians 2:3)
- Share hope – Minister good news with “gentleness and respect”. “Always be prepared to give an answer to everyone who asks you to give the reason for the hope that you have.” (1 Peter 3:15)
- Model Christ – Live as exemplary ambassadors for the faith. “Let your light shine before others, that they may see your good deeds and glorify your Father in heaven.” (Matthew 5:16)
Standing for truth need not equate to cultural hostility. Christians can uphold biblical values while loving and serving all people for the glory of God.
Conclusion
Demographics indicate that Christians represent around 31-35% of the global population as of 2020. This makes Christianity a numerical minority amid the world’s religions.
Yet Christians worship the God of all creation, not a tribal deity. The mission of the people of God remains advancing His kingdom among all nations until Christ returns, regardless of statistical trends.
Across generations and regions, the call for Christians is the same – to faithfully share and demonstrate the good news of Jesus Christ in the power of the Spirit.
